Development of a realistic scenario for the thermal energy demand of residential buildings in Bavaria till 2050

To achieve the climate protection goals, enormous efforts must be undertaken in all sectors: households, industry, commerce, and transport. Following a straightforward approach, political objectives foresee, that building sector massive reduction of energy use for heat supply is accomplished. However, previous investigations have shown this consumption not feasible. Older buildings exhibit especially high demand emissions. Yet, due to low refurbishment rate, no substantial change can expected within next decades. By fully renovating entire residential stock, approximately 70 % final related CO2 emissions could saved, still enough reach goals. Therefore, renovation or renewal renewable sources implemented jointly achieving desired savings.The methods used estimate characteristics Bavaria’s stock as well its heating year 2050 are presented. Alternative goals given which base upon achievable saving realistic scenario accompanied by further using energies.